Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.895504 1.045040 1.211502 1.410513 1.641974 1.902715 2.218807
2024-12-29 0.690104 0.899500 1.158989 1.504090 1.951109 2.510852 3.265648
2025-01-05 0.533314 0.751589 1.043339 1.461615 2.046105 2.834470 3.980165
2025-01-12 0.427444 0.641965 0.946912 1.411676 2.102434 3.092121 4.620498
2025-01-19 0.352486 0.559388 0.869605 1.368100 2.149559 3.329138 5.248928
2025-01-26 0.311027 0.518483 0.844674 1.394172 2.297491 3.725807 6.161609
2025-02-02 0.290905 0.507144 0.862167 1.486464 2.558013 4.325278 7.469709
2025-02-09 0.265423 0.482360 0.853109 1.531546 2.743572 4.822133 8.668686
2025-02-16 0.239908 0.453315 0.831999 1.551299 2.885382 5.258404 9.814345
2025-02-23 0.215410 0.422270 0.802582 1.550846 2.988531 5.635386 10.896119
2025-03-02 0.192663 0.391119 0.768478 1.536178 3.061513 5.962984 11.922467
2025-03-09 0.175281 0.367886 0.746062 1.540319 3.169608 6.366643 13.141755
2025-03-16 0.153022 0.332244 0.695814 1.484536 3.155834 6.540493 13.944712
2025-03-23 0.148500 0.333149 0.719704 1.584894 3.476472 7.425533 16.332837
2025-03-30 0.131474 0.304531 0.678127 1.540210 3.483415 7.662418 17.373924
2025-04-06 0.116051 0.277242 0.635705 1.487605 3.465286 7.841954 18.309974
2025-04-13 0.103095 0.253759 0.598569 1.441700 3.455563 8.037247 19.304677
2025-04-20 0.096641 0.244794 0.593326 1.469166 3.619070 8.641615 21.326906
2025-04-27 0.095091 0.247600 0.615999 1.566389 3.961270 9.700258 24.570660
2025-05-04 0.090571 0.242285 0.618378 1.613880 4.187637 10.510652 27.309483
2025-05-11 0.084962 0.233355 0.610642 1.634687 4.349392 11.182564 29.785464
2025-05-18 0.078812 0.222107 0.595531 1.634209 4.455765 11.727892 32.002445
2025-05-25 0.072551 0.209680 0.575774 1.618758 4.520516 12.174406 34.015627